It's a question of balance....

So here we are, the business end of the season. Four games to go, and over the next couple of weeks it'll either be "Let's smash MK and go to Wembley" or it'll be "Well at least we did better than last time".

Fortunately for us, we don't have to concern ourselves with any "squeaky bums". That kind of thing is for Barrow, Crewe and Crawley to worry about, they're already in there and just need to hold onto what they've got. All three of those teams by the way have been excellently managed to this point. None have huge budgets nor massively impressive individual players,  if they make the playoffs that's a fine effort.

So what of us? Well a quick check with the bookies sees that they have us at 7/1 to make the playoffs. That's probably about right, not only do we have some ground to make up but there are a couple of teams behind us with games in hand also. It's been said that we need to win our last four, I'd say even that probably won't be enough. It's not by any means impossible that we get in there, but I'm afraid we do need a couple of snookers.

It's long felt to me (from my view in the stands) that we haven't quite got the balance right between trying to avoid conceding goals/getting beat, and trying to score goals/win. Funnily enough I had that feeling even stronger earlier in the season. Back then we had the best player in the league playing centre forward for us, a sound defence and generally a very good team. If we don't make the cut, it won't be because we got beat one zip at Stockport, it'll be because we didn't go "let's have it, we'll score more than you" at Grimsby, Forest Green etc.

A quick look at the current form table is illustrative. 

Only one team has conceded less than us in the last ten games (Wrexham) but we have the worst attacking numbers in the league. Even Sutton have scored more than double our goals tally, Mansfield have scored almost four times as many.

Whatever happens over the next couple of weeks, it's this balance which needs addressing. At the moment we have two expensive strikers sitting on the bench, our best striker often operating as a ball winning midfielder and our chief threat is from long throws. We don't get forward in any numbers and we don't in all honesty even look like scoring heavily.

My hunch is that we need to get the ball down and play a bit more. I'm not talking Notts County or MK style, but we've got to look on the first pass to at least try and find the feet of a teammate. We need to go through the thirds a bit more. We have good footballers, we need to play and then give others a chance to get up and support the strikers.

We've made big progress this season. Next time around, it's on this balance that surely the focus must fall.

My match report: AFC Wimbledon v Newport.

On this home straight, everyone involved in the playoff stock car race is going to encounter bumps in the road. They're going to run into potholes too, that was us today as we rolled into one deep enough to warrant a phonecall to the council.

To tell the truth I thought Newport deserved the win. Firstly they scored what was probably the best goal I've seen at PL this season, then they got the second and dogged it out when we got up a head of steam. 

Fair play to them, but they were helped along the way by an astonishing refereeing performance. The refs errors were by no means exclusively in Newport's favour (I still can't believe he missed a blatant first half trip from Armani Little) but of the many mistakes he made, the biggest was not sending off the defender who was adjudged to have fouled John Kirmani-Gordon.

I was level with the incident and wasn't convinced it was a foul at all at the time. The ref blew for it though, and at that point the red card should have been insta-brandished. A yellow card was a nonsense, our man was in on goal. That incident hurt us badly.

I thought the crucial nuance of the game was how good Newport's front two were. The pace of Evans along with the physicality of Zanzala meant we often needed all of our back five to contain them, because of that we struggled to get any dominance further up the pitch. Lee Brown in particular was a big loss for us going forward.

And then when their 8 (Morris) had it rolled back into his path, he drilled it into the corner from 20 yards. When we had two similar opportunities, we drilled them into row zed. On such details games are won and lost.

Anyway it is what it is (or was what it was) and we move on. Had we won here we wouldn't have been close to a guaranteed playoff spot. Now we've lost, we're nowhere near guaranteed to NOT get one either.

And of course those of us who have a sense of destiny know that in actual fact, we ARE certainties for the playoffs. How do I know? Well because I can feel the inexorable magnetic force pulling us together. MK will be 4th, we will be 7th. There is an inevitability about us meeting them over two legs in a do or die playoff semi-final.

Today changes nothing, we WILL get into the playoffs. COYD

We might be boring, but they can't get us out.

I didn't go to yesterday's game (can't go on Tuesday either) so there's no match report or player ratings from me this week. I did however speak to plenty of folks in the pub last night who went, and I have seen almost every game recently. With that in mind, let's look at how we are looking in terms of the playoffs.

Firstly our form. The good news is that it's better than it looks, which is just as well because we ain't the prettiest watch right now it's fair to say. To me, we kind of resemble a really good batter who is completely out of nick, digging in and trying to get something going. We're squirting it down to fine leg, mistiming drives, ducking bouncers, playing and missing, blocking straight ones and generally sending the crowd into a deep trance. The great thing is though, we ain't getting out. We are hanging in there and as all cricket fans know, sooner or later if we do that it will all click. 

Being able to pick up points when you aren't playing great has always been the hallmark of a serious football team, that's what we're becoming.

A quick look at the table tells it's own story.

To my mind, the top four have gone over the horizon. Behind them, I think that there are eight teams competing for three spots (below Bradford I think the teams are getting the holiday brochures out). I am pretty sure that of those eight, we are playing with the least amount of fluency when we have the football. We are grinding it out and staying in there, and what's more I'm beginning to really like our chances of making it in.

It's worth remembering that we are getting points and results despite the fact that we are barely scoring any goals. Not only that, we have been without BOTH members of the best centre half pairing in the league for quite a few weeks now. That we've just kept three consecutive clean sheets with a patched up back four is an absolutely huge feather in the caps of the lads who have come in, a truly monumental effort. They all deserve massive credit (as do the coaching staff), but I must give special mention to Lee Brown. He has been absolutely inspirational as a converted centre half, I hope he's enjoying playing as much as we are watching him. Not only is he defending and organising like a demon, he's also got that Sunday League (Takes one last drag then flips his ciggie to the ground) "Hold me coat lads, I'm going UP" which is brilliant to watch. There aren't many hairy arsed centre halves who go on random rampages down the left wing, but this warrior does with great effect.

And every game now is a vital one. We don't have to win all of the last nine, but we can probably afford no more than two defeats. If we DID get beat twice, we'd probably have to win six of the other seven. The minus for us is that our last nine games don't at the moment come against any totally "on the beach" teams (teams which have bugger all to play for), but that may change in the next fortnight. Notts County for example were sent to look for some deckchairs by us yesterday, their playoff hopes in my eyes now being dead.

But I like our chances. We are dogged, determined and becoming pretty dangerous. Nobody likes playing against us, and we can attack all of our remaining games (arguably with the exception of Stockport) knowing that we are at least the equal of our opponents. 

I don't think we can grind all the way into the playoffs, at some point we are going to need to click and start scoring goals. What we CAN do and ARE doing though is grind our way into contention. From there, when we DO click (and we have too many good players for it not to happen) that momentum might just carry us over the line.

I've a hunch we finish seventh and get MK who will be fourth in a two leg do or die encounter. Hashtag Oh Em Gee.

COYD

My Match Report: AFC Wimbledon v Grimsby Town

I think everyone in the ground (apart from the two in the picture) had a bit of an off night last night. Us lot in the crowd were flatter than a discarded estate football, while the manager paced gingerly about the technical area in the manner of someone who might have tweaked a hammie celebrating the goal on Saturday. The players had a slightly bemused look about them too. The kind you get for the hour or so before you work out that the instructions don't match the flat pack chest of drawers you're trying to put together. You have all the tools, the screws, the Alan keys and the parts to make it work, but it just ain't happening.

Was it surprising? Not really. Go on your Summer Holidays to Spain if you don't believe me. Watch the Elvis impersonators, the Queen tribute bands and then when you get back, go down your local. All of a sudden, Maureens "hot pot Tuesday night" (complete with the "guess what's in the box" section) doesn't seem that thrilling. After the Lord mayors show is one of the commonest phenomenons in sport, that's all that last night was.

At least it was consistent in that it started awkwardly and got worse. Omar Bugiel tweaking something in the warm up wasn't what we needed, particularly given the fact he is surely in the form of his life (he must be, otherwise he wouldn't be playing in League Two). From there we never really recovered nor got going. Like the old BSA bike you find down the allotment, when the key was turned we coughed and spluttered, threatened to kick into life, then ultimately died with a fffttttt and a plume of smoke. It wasn't for want of trying. We gave it our all, gave it numerous shoves and the lads tried their hearts out, it just wasn't there this time.

The good news is we didn't get beat. Nowhere in the rules of football does it say that you have to lose if you aren't playing well, and yet again we eeked out a point when not really at it. Was it a good point? Yes.

We've got ten games to go and we have 51 points. We could win six of those remaining games and we still won't make it. That is UNLESS we keep on picking up these points while it ain't really happening for us. Obliviously we are at some stage going to have to go on a winning run, but unless we eek out draws in games like last night, it won't matter even when we do.

So last night was a good point under difficult circumstances. It's the long game we're interested in, and if we can arrive at the last three matches knowing that if we win them all we've got an outstanding chance, I'll take that. If we then don't win them all, fair enough.

Last night's point though gives us a platform, we move on. COYD.

Forget walkovers, Grimsby is no gimme.

I've read that tonight is a "must win" if we want to make the play-offs, it isn't. It might at an absolute stretch be a "it'd really be quite handy not to lose", but it's not a must win. Equally, I've read fans saying that these are "shite", and that we'll "batter" them. Of course that's as possible as it always is in a game of football, but I'd be very surprised if it happens.

Let's look at us first. In our last five matches we've scored two goals. Now of course that doesn't mean that we won't get six tonight, but based on watching all of the games I wouldn't say we're close to "One of these days someone is gonna get a stuffing" territory. The simple fact of the matter is (ask Josh Kelly if you don't believe me), we aren't actually creating many goalscoring chances at the moment. Now as I say that could change at any moment, but if it did tonight you'd have to say it'd come at least a little bit out of the blue.

Fortunately, we are defending pretty well and it's that part of our team which is keeping us "in" matches. We're digging in, and once more I expect us to do the same tonight. Jake and Armani have been excellent, the back four and keeper rock solid. Even when we're ravaged by injuries and not at our most fluent, we ain't easy to score against. That's of course just as well, based on current form if we concede once we ain't winning, twice and we'd be done.

Then there's the fact we've just climbed off an emotional rollercoaster, and one that went over very bumpy sections of track at that. No sooner have we rubbed the tears from our eyes and disentangled ourselves from the seatbelts, we are back out again.

And what of Grimsby? Well they lost their best player in January (sound familiar?). For them it was a holding midfielder, the hugely impressive Kamil Conteh, whisked off to a division higher after only six months in league two. Like us, it knocked them and they started shipping goals as quickly as they were plummeting down the table.

They've brought in David Artell as manager (ex Crewe and often touted as potential for us) and a couple of new signings. Doug Tharme is I think the most notable, a good young centre half who seems to have helped steady the ship. Last two games they got a good 1-1 away at Morecambe and a crucial 1-0 win at home to Forest Green. Forest Green are much improved and this was a real relegation six pointer, a massive win for them.

Players to watch out for? Rodgers the centre half is decent, Tharme I like and he has a throw on him, I'm a bit of a fan of the midfielder (plays 8) Gavan Hollohan who has a goal in him (must be watched). Up top I think most of their fans would say the best player in their team is Danny Rose (ex Stevenage). Works his nuts off, has a great climb for not the biggest of lads and can score a goal (14 so far this season).

They also have a bit of a wild card, the on loan from Coventry, Trinidad and Tobago 20yo Justin Obikwu. I haven't seen him play, but apparently he's lively.

I've also read from our fans that they "won't bring many". I'd be very surprised if that's the case. They are one of the best supported teams in the league and this is a huge match for them.

I'm expecting it to be very tight tonight, and the first goal could be vital. I take us to shade it 2-1. Any Grimsby Town fans who fancy a pre match beer and a chin wag by the way, you're 100% welcome in the Alex.