As we come well and truly inside the League Two final furlong, so tight is it that we can realistically finish anywhere between 1st & 8th. To be honest 8th is probably LESS likely than 1st, our superior goal difference meaning that Colchester in 8th are effectively seven points behind us with five games to go. That's too big a gap for me, so hate on me all you like but I'm telling you here & now, WE WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS unless we absolutely fall off a cliff.
If I'm right on that one (and I am), it just goes to show how vital the win against Harrogate really was. Equally, it demonstrates that the "it's all about the three points really" analysis from the manager was spot on. That win has given us some breathing space, we can bank on a playoff spot now and properly have a look at things above us.
Now in my book it's far too early to be concerning ourselves with who we'd like to play if we DO end up being in the playoffs. Similarly, we shouldn't bother with the old "teams that finish fourth don't go up" theory. Our concern from here ought to be winning the title, if we can't manage that getting into the top three. Obviously if we make even a credible attempt at those two objectives, we are GUARANTEED a playoff slot should we fall short.
Now in the aftermath of Saturdays win, many people in the pub were downbeat and told me it was "the worst they'd ever seen us play". In my eyes we were miles off that (I've seen us play really badly) and I thought there were encouraging signs. Those same people are now saying Doncaster is a MUST win, I can't agree with that either.
If we lose at Doncaster on Saturday and at least one of the top three (Bradford, Port Vale, Walsall) win, I'd say our hopes of winning the league are as good as over. Defeat would unless the top three all have a bad day, make getting into the top three difficult too.
Draw at Doncaster though, and unless the top three ALL win then we still have a great chance. To paraphrase Johnny, Doncaster IS a "tough place to come" and I don't care what anyone says, a point there ain't a bad result. Even if we lose, we will still make the playoffs. Absolutely no need to panic.
The good news though is that a win catapults us into the picture like "man fired from a cannon" circus act doing some photo bombing. With our goal difference, we wouldn't then be in "pole" position but we would be on the starting grid as the only car with wet weather tires on as the monsoon blows over. I'd back us to get into the top three if we win, win our last five and I'd say we probably finish up as Champions.
So for those of us going up to Donnie, what can we expect/hope for off Johnnie and the boys. Well first things first, I know young Follo did well for us on Saturday but I definitely wouldn't start him here. Similarly and even as the founder member of his fan club I wouldn't start Aaron Sasu. No, I'd be going with the team and players which have gotten us into the position we're in. Similarly the formation and style. Now's not the time to start inverting full backs or trying a false nine, we need to be sticking to the style that's gotten us into the playoff spots in the first place.
"Hang on, I thought you wanted changes" I hear you say, and I do. There's a time and a place though, this isn't either. No, we must go into the lions den with a team of men, a group of lads who when they look into the whites of each others eyes see nothing but 100% commitment, are willing Ng to go to war. It's going to be very difficult but we can go to Doncaster and win. It's our time, let's get it done.
