Down the stretch!

As we come well and truly inside the League Two final furlong, so tight is it that we can realistically finish anywhere between 1st & 8th. To be honest 8th is probably LESS likely than 1st, our superior goal difference meaning that Colchester in 8th are effectively seven points behind us with five games to go. That's too big a gap for me, so hate on me all you like but I'm telling you here & now, WE WILL AT LEAST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS unless we absolutely fall off a cliff.

If I'm right on that one (and I am), it just goes to show how vital the win against Harrogate really was. Equally, it demonstrates that the "it's all about the three points really" analysis from the manager was spot on. That win has given us some breathing space, we can bank on a playoff spot now and properly have a look at things above us.

Now in my book it's far too early to be concerning ourselves with who we'd like to play if we DO end up being in the playoffs. Similarly, we shouldn't bother with the old "teams that finish fourth don't go up" theory. Our concern from here ought to be winning the title, if we can't manage that getting into the top three. Obviously if we make even a credible attempt at those two objectives, we are GUARANTEED a playoff slot should we fall short.

Now in the aftermath of Saturdays win, many people in the pub were downbeat and told me it was "the worst they'd ever seen us play". In my eyes we were miles off that (I've seen us play really badly) and I thought there were encouraging signs. Those same people are now saying Doncaster is a MUST win, I can't agree with that either.

If we lose at Doncaster on Saturday and at least one of the top three (Bradford, Port Vale, Walsall) win, I'd say our hopes of winning the league are as good as over. Defeat would unless the top three all have a bad day, make getting into the top three difficult too.

Draw at Doncaster though, and unless the top three ALL win then we still have a great chance. To paraphrase Johnny, Doncaster IS a "tough place to come" and I don't care what anyone says, a point there ain't a bad result. Even if we lose, we will still make the playoffs. Absolutely no need to panic.

The good news though is that a win catapults us into the picture like "man fired from a cannon" circus act doing some photo bombing. With our goal difference, we wouldn't then be in "pole" position but we would be on the starting grid as the only car with wet weather tires on as the monsoon blows over. I'd back us to get into the top three if we win, win our last five and I'd say we probably finish up as Champions.

So for those of us going up to Donnie, what can we expect/hope for off Johnnie and the boys. Well first things first, I know young Follo did well for us on Saturday but I definitely wouldn't start him here. Similarly and even as the founder member of his fan club I wouldn't start Aaron Sasu. No, I'd be going with the team and players which have gotten us into the position we're in. Similarly the formation and style. Now's not the time to start inverting full backs or trying a false nine, we need to be sticking to the style that's gotten us into the playoff spots in the first place.

"Hang on, I thought you wanted changes" I hear you say, and I do. There's a time and a place though, this isn't either. No, we must go into the lions den with a team of men, a group of lads who when they look into the whites of each others eyes see nothing but 100% commitment, are willing Ng to go to war. It's going to be very difficult but we can go to Doncaster and win. It's our time, let's get it done.

Cool heads needed, apply within.

The picture isn't my creation, it's just one of a number of fairly cruel ones which are being circulated online right now. There probably isn't a single AFC Wimbledon WhatsApp group that hasn't got at least a few "Sack him now!" contributers, along with plenty of "The players are bottle jobs" merchants. Listen to these fans and the situation looks very bleak but while I get their frustration, things have the potential to improve even quicker than they've gone to shite. And let's be honest here, gone to shite they most definitely have. Ten points from our last ten games is practically relegation form, and we've done it in a period of fixtures which looked favourable on paper.

Unfortunately for us of course, you don't play football on paper you play it on grass. That is to say MOST teams play it on grass, we work it backwards on grass but favour the "out of the clouds" approach when we decide to advance the football down the pitch. Before we get too sniffy about that fact, it's worth remembering that our method has gotten us firmly into a playoff slot. Our style maybe wouldn't make it into a "total football" compilation, but at least until recently it's been fairly effective.

So where has it all gone wrong & what do we do from here?

First things first. Talk of sacking the manager now, with us in the playoffs and with a handful of games to go, is daft. There'll be a decision to be made at the end of the season (there always is in football) but you don't sack managers now, not ones who've successfully given you an opportunity to be promoted anyway. So let's put that one to bed, the manager isn't going anywhere and nor should he.

Nor FWIW is Johnnie "Absolutely clueless". Yes he makes mistakes (Who doesn't?) and yes he is occasionally outwitted (last night appeared to be an example) and yes he probably still has somethings to learn, but a mug he isn't. Nor are the players "Bottle jobs". Football is essentially a simple game, but it isn't THAT simple. If Johnnie was shite and the players were bottlers, we wouldn't be where we are in the league. It's time for supporters to support in my book.

So my take is we have a good young manager and we have an excellent squad of players. It isn't because Johnnie is clueless or that the players are bottlers that we're in relegation form in my opinion, so what is it then silly bollocks? I hear you ask.

Well to my mind there are a couple of factors. In each of Johnnie's three seasons as our manager we have absolutely slumped coming down the home stretch, I don't think it's a coincidence. It has happened every season because we've done the same thing every season. I think the starters are knackered, quite simply because we don't change the team enough. We don't select different players to start anywhere near often enough, and we don't make substitutions anywhere near early enough nor anywhere near often enough.

The result of that is that excellent players such as Jake Reeves and Ali Smith look absolutely finished, gone. We very rarely change it up, the same players play in the same positions every week and they are (pardon the language), fucked. We don't take the opportunity to freshen things up with substitutions early enough nor often enough. The result of that is that when players DO come on, often for their first minutes in a month, they look rusty as fuck (ditto on the language, sorry).

And our playing style. Given we rarely keep the ball (other than when we are passing it around at the back while deciding whose turn it is to smash it forwards) we place a lot of burden on the players energy levels. Young Matty Stevens runs a marathon a game chasing lost causes, ditto Omar Bugiel. If we ARE going to persist with this method, it is EVEN MORE important that we change it up. In short, we look about as leggy as an in prime Shane Warne, something has to change or we will continue to concede late goals, continue to drop points.

And THAT "style". It is hardly surprising given that we broadly play in exactly the same way regardless of who we are playing against, OR what the state of the game is at the time, that teams are beginning to work us out a bit. So much so that the team we played against yesterday put their giant centre forward into central defence. That would normally be madness, but as the ONLY defending he was going to be asked to perform was to stand there and head it, it made perfect sense. I absolutely get that we want to be direct, to play our football in THEIR third, but surely we'd be a better team if we mixed it up? It's not illegal to play it through the thirds. It's not against the law for a defender or a midfielder to carry the football if nobody comes to close them down (teams by and large don't bother against us, they KNOW we are going to launch it). To my mind we've gotten sucked into not taking responsibility when we have the football. We take the easy option again and again. Whether that's passing it backwards or launching it on a diagonal, it reeks to me of a team which is more afraid of making a mistake than it is trying to win a football match.

The good news is though, we are still firmly in control of our own destiny. We WILL still make the playoffs, from there if we play to our potential we WILL get promoted. We WILL BTW beat Harrogate on Saturday. How about doing it with some players who have legs though? What about doing it while playing a modicum of football?

Harrogate are Harrogate, but we are going to have to get results against MUCH better teams. We aren't going to be able to do that by playing hoofball and filling the team with blokes who are knackered. It's time to be brave, to grab the thing by the nads. Not time for sacking managers nor losing faith in the players, it's time to USE that squad we keep talking about,and time to play some of that football that apparently happens on the training pitch every day. Bravery in football is rarely the wrong course of action, it certainly isn't the case here either. COYD