Friday, 27 October 2023

Two points from the last twelve. Are the wheels coming off?


It's a fair question I guess, and one that has been doing the rounds in the Alex since Tuesday. Two points from the last twelve has quickly seen us go from "Sheesh win this and we're in the automatics!" to "Get beat here and we're looking down not up".

So should we be worried? Is it time for the Jackson "haters" (I know there never was any in the first place but let's go with it for now) to dust off the placards? Or has it just been an unfortunate blip?

The answer is probably a combination of all three. It almost always is in life. I do to be honest think it's understandable that people are concerned about our form right now, although I personally am still calm. It's true that we aren't playing THAT badly, but bad runs don't grow from awful performances. Horror shows tend to come later down the line. Like good runs, bad runs begin with a goal off someone's arse, a poor refereeing decision, a game in which the result doesn't reflect the performance. Good runs don't start with great performances either, they never did.

I thought for example we were decent at Mansfield, hard done by to lose against Bradford, solid if unspectacular at Barrow, but the three without a win turned into four and another loss with an awful first half against Accrington.

So concern is fair enough, I get it. Equally, we can hardly be surprised if that concern also brings the manager into the equation. The last time a poor run sprouted roots, it had become a Triffid and taken over the greenhouse in no time. Not only was Johnnie unable to stop it, he never looked likely to be about to get the petrol out either (it was quickly past the sheers stage). Long before the final couple of matches we had the calculators and the calendars out, only the season finishing when it did saved us from the drop.

So let's look at it and start with the defence. I personally am totally unconcerned that we conceded four goals against Accrington. Equally, I'm not bothered that the four could easily have been six. I don't care. Why? Because I KNOW we have a great defence. I've watched it all over the country this season. We have a solid goalkeeper and right back, two of the best centre backs in the league and a superstar left back. They defend and play well as a unit, totally cohesive. So much so that they even had a nightmare performance all on the same day, far better that way. They were all rubbish against Accy, they'll all know it, and it won't happen again.

In midfield, I know we have top players. Were they great against Accy? No they weren't, and neither are they collectively playing at their best right now, but they are all good players who work their nuts off. They'll do for me, although I would play James Ball tomorrow if I was doing the team sheet. I'd also consider a 4-3-3 with Tilley in the 10, but this post isn't about that sort of stuff so I'll leave it. Suffice to say we have good midfielders and I'm not concerned.

Up top in Omar and Ali we have a very potent combination, with Josh chomping away in the background. As previously stated, I'm not worried about Josh either. I hear the murmurings, but I've seen him have too many good games for us, bust a gut on too many occasions to give up on the fella now. "Supporter" isn't just a word, it's a thing. Josh needs to hear his name being sung while he's warming up, needs to feel the warm hand of supporter love again.

And Johnnie? Well no amount of "injury index" data, no "budget league table" or "we lost our best players in January" stuff will ever convince me that last season wasn't a total shit show. That said, I think that so far this season he's done an excellent job. He built the team into a fighting unit in a matter of weeks, and we've at times looked one of the best teams in the league. He has (I think it's a statement of the obvious) improved as a manager this season and by a fair margin. That doesn't mean of course that he doesn't occasionally make mistakes (the team selection in the last game was a bit of a shocker as it turned out), but by and large he looks like he learns quickly. Hopefully that learning includes a "how to get back on track" section, we'll need that if we don't win at Morecambe (which is far from an easy game). 

So in summary, I'm NOT worried yet, but we need a result. That result needs to be a WIN, not a "great clean sheet", a "really solid team performance" or any of that stuff, we need to WIN.

QUICK SCOUTING REPORT: Morecambe are a good team with a good manager. They are two points ahead of us and have played two games LESS than us. They're unbeaten in seven and have won their last four. They are essentially a good team rather than having outstanding individuals, but everyone's talking about young Michael Mellon up top, on loan from Burnley. He is very good and in time will be miles too good for the level. I really like the Northern Irish kid in midfield (JJ Mcsomething), he's box to box and has a goal in him. Josh Bedau at the back is a good player, and I think Adam Mayor is going to be a good player too. They work hard, don't mind if you have the ball most of the time, and fight till the death. If we can win there it'll be a great result, but we could really do with one.

My prediction? 1-1

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